Survery predicts increased hiring. Or does it?

Many in the blogosphere have latched onto a survey released last week by Robert Half Legal stating that 26% of attorneys polled indicated that their firms expect to increase legal professional headcount in the coming year.

While we hate to rain on anyone's parade, a closer look at the numbers doesn't support a whole lot of optimism.

First, let's look at the flip-side of the survey. While 26% said their firms expected to increase staffing, 67% anticipated no change. In other words, more than two thirds of respondents said headcount would remain flat.

That means the profession as a whole is looking at another year with two thirds of employers contributing to the current backlog of unemployed lawyers and new associates.

In fact, the press release touting the study discusses the difficulty firms currently face when they actually do post job openings, because they are overwhelmed with candidates.

"But locating the best candidates may be difficult, the survey results suggest. Forty-one percent of respondents said that it is challenging to find skilled legal professionals in the United States, despite high unemployment rates. Volkert noted that a single legal posting can generate several hundred resumes. "The sheer volume of applicants often makes the process more complicated for hiring managers," he said. "As a result, some firms and departments are relying more heavily on their professional networks, internal referrals and specialized recruiters to identify the best candidates for open roles."

But the real reasons to temper optimism are the results of the same survey from previous years.

It's neither surprising nor encouraging that in better financial times more than half of attorneys surveyed in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and early 2008 expected increased hiring.

What is discouraging, though, is last year's survey. Dated March 26, 2009 -- well into the recession and a mere six weeks after Black Thursday, when law firms across the country began slashing jobs -- the survey found that 25% surveyed anticipated hiring in 2009.

"MENLO PARK, CA -- Despite a down economy and layoffs in the legal field, one-quarter (25 percent) of lawyers interviewed recently said their organizations would be adding personnel in the next 12 months."

Essentially the same number that reported in the affirmative this year.

Unfortunately, we know how last year turned out.